
USDA NASS reported Northwest Region winter wheat production up 59% from last year, with Washington at 122 million bushels and Idaho and Oregon also sharply higher. Spring wheat, barley and oat output also rose in the region.
Larger Pacific Northwest supplies add wheat and barley availability domestically, which is mildly bearish for prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.