The European Commission's October 16 estimate puts the EU-28 2016/17 cereal harvest at about 295 million tonnes, roughly 5 million less than its prior month's estimate and 16 million below last year. Winter wheat fell from 151 to 135 million tonnes, with France down about 30% due to adverse weather.
A smaller EU crop and reduced wheat exports (cut to 36.6 million tonnes) tighten European supply and can support wheat prices and feed grain alternatives for buyers.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.