
The European Commission estimates the 2026 EU soft wheat harvest at 125.9 million tonnes, 6.2% below 2025 and 0.6% below the five-year average. Matif May wheat closed up on the day at €205.25/t and CBoT wheat rose to $6.05/bu.
A smaller EU wheat crop reduces export supply from a major exporter, supporting wheat prices and potentially boosting demand for feed substitutes like corn and barley.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.