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A Roller Flour Millers' Federation estimate puts India's 2023 wheat harvest at 101-103 million tonnes, at least 10% below the government's estimate. Wheat prices in New Delhi have risen 10% in two months to 24,900 rupees per tonne.
A materially smaller Indian crop than officially estimated raises the odds of further export restrictions and supports global wheat prices as importers seek supply.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.