The USDA's November 9 WASDE lowered the 2018 U.S. all-wheat carryover by 25 million bushels to 935 million, on higher exports driven by recent Iraq sales. The 2018 soybean carryover was also trimmed on lower production, while the corn carryover was raised.
Tighter projected wheat and soybean carryover supports prices, while the larger corn carryover adds bearish pressure on corn.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.