
ABARES forecasts South Australian winter crop production to fall 4% in 2021-22 to just over 8 Mt. Lower wheat output from the Mallee is only partly offset by higher output elsewhere.
Heavy rain has slowed harvest, and hail and wind caused isolated losses.
A smaller South Australian wheat and barley crop slightly tightens Australian supply for export. The effect on global prices is small because the state is a minor part of the national crop.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.