
ABARES's September estimates put Australian wheat at 25.385 million tonnes, down 36% from last year and 9.3% below the five-year average. Winter crop production was revised up 300,000 tonnes to 45.2 million tonnes, with northern areas facing moisture stress.
Australian wheat output below the USDA's August estimate of 29 million tonnes points to a likely downward revision in global supply and firmer wheat prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.