Markets react as USDA reduces production estimates

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Oct 6, 2022USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer-14.4%
• May 14, 2026Markets React as USDA Releases First Look at 2026/27 Estimates+0.7%
• May 12, 2026Wheat Rallies the Limit on Tuesday as USDA Releases Production Updates+2.0%
• Jun 14, 2017ABARE crop report signals a 33 per cent fall in winter crop production | The Rural | Wagga Wagga, NSW+0.6%
• Aug 13, 2021Prairie Wheat Weekly: USDA estimates raise wheat bids - MarketsFarm+1.6%

After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Oct 6, 2022USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer-2.0%
• May 12, 2026Wheat Rallies the Limit on Tuesday as USDA Releases Production Updates+4.5%
• Dec 15, 2021Adjusting to USDA Estimates in a Record-Setting Marketing Year+4.5%
• May 29, 2025Markets react to USDA wheat downgrade and moisture concerns on the Prairies - RealAgriculture+2.9%
• Mar 6, 2017USDA releases new crop estimates for major crops - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets-3.6%