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Brazil rainfall from late September through November was well below average, coinciding with Brazil running out of old-crop soybeans and sending futures soaring. A monsoon flow pattern finally initiated in early December, bringing enhanced rainfall to central-west and central-south Brazil, though La Niña dryness persists in eastern Argentina, southern Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Improved rains reduce yield risk for Brazil's soybean and corn crops, easing some supply concern and pressuring soybean prices, while lingering dryness in Argentina keeps a floor under meal and oil values.
world-grain.comDrew LernerDec 16, 2020After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
