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The IRI April 2021 ENSO summary reports that east-central Pacific sea surface temperatures were about 0.4 C below average in mid-April. Atmospheric indicators are consistent with weakening La Niña, and most models expect a transition to neutral conditions in April or May.
A move from La Niña to neutral reduces the risk of drought in key exporting regions such as Argentina and southern Brazil. That eases supply concerns and weighs slightly on grain price premiums.
iri.columbia.eduApr 19, 2021iri.columbia.eduApr 19, 2021After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
