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The IRI April 2020 ENSO Quick Look reports that sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño in mid-April, while atmospheric patterns remained mainly neutral. Most model forecasts favor neutral conditions through spring, cooling to average by summer and continuing through fall.
A neutral ENSO outlook removes the strong weather signal that would otherwise drive large crop-yield swings, so near-term weather-driven price risk for feed grains is limited.
iri.columbia.eduApr 20, 2020After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
