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The IRI June 2020 Quick Look reports that east-central Pacific sea surface temperatures fell near the La Niña threshold in early June. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for ENSO-neutral in summer and roughly equal odds of neutral or La Niña in fall and winter.
A neutral-to-La Niña outlook keeps weather risk for the next crop seasons in focus without signalling an immediate supply shock. Price effects are likely to be minor unless the outlook shifts toward a stronger event.
iri.columbia.eduJun 19, 2020After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
