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The IRI June update says the tropical Pacific is currently ENSO-neutral, with a 50% chance of El Niño developing in fall rising to 65% by winter 2018-19. An El Niño watch has been issued.
Models collectively favor weak El Niño in late summer, possibly growing to moderate strength.
Rising odds of a moderate El Niño by winter could tighten supplies of Australian wheat and Southeast Asian palm oil in 2019. Traders may build some risk premium, though the effect is still distant.
iri.columbia.eduJun 19, 2018After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
