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July soybean oil closed limit down 5.5 cents on June 17 on concerns about a possible change in biofuel policy. Prices were challenging the 100-day average near 55.68 cents, a level not broken since June 2020.
Soyoil had earlier reached a record and accounted for over half of crush value.
Soybean oil is now a major driver of soybean crush value, so a loss of biofuel demand support could weaken soybean and meal economics. The break below key averages signals a sharp correction in vegetable oil prices.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanJun 18, 2021After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Soyoil closed limit down on biofuel policy concerns, cutting crush value, a major support for soybeans, which pressured the complex.
