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FOB soybean oil prices in South America fell to their lowest level in more than two years, down about 20% in 2023 while CBOT futures lost 15%. Prompt premiums were unusually low at minus 980 points to May CBOT on March 22 compared with positive levels a year earlier.
Brazil's new biodiesel mandate, rising to B15 by 2026, disappointed industry participants expecting a faster increase.
Weak South American oil values and basis reduce crusher margins and pressure soybean oil prices, while the slower biodiesel blend path limits domestic demand support. Lower oil values may push crushers toward more meal output.
chemanalyst.comMar 24, 2023After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
