U.S. soybean futures fell on June 16, 2021, to their lowest level in nearly two months, as global vegetable oil prices retreated from multi-year highs. CBOT soyoil dropped its 3.5-cent limit after an all-time high the prior week, and Euronext rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil also fell.
The EPA's consideration of relief from biofuel blending mandates added to the selloff.
Falling vegetable oil prices and reduced biofuel demand expectations lower soybean crush value and pressure soybean prices. Fund long positions unwinding adds further downside risk.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Soyoil limit-down on June 16 as EPA relief consideration and falling palm and rapeseed prices pressured vegetable oils.