
Angel Commodities expects Indian soybean futures to trade higher after edible oil import duty was raised and NCDEX soybean posted its largest weekly gain since August. Reports also say the government may double export incentives on oilmeal to 10%, and oilmeal exports have risen sharply.
Higher Indian oilmeal export incentives could pull more meal out of India and tighten global meal supply, while the edible oil duty hike supports domestic soybean crushing demand.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.