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Brazil's president signed a provisional measure limiting exporters' and processors' ability to monetize tax credits. Amius Ltd says merchants will likely raise Brazilian soy prices to compensate, making Brazilian beans less competitive with US supplies.
A likely rise in Brazilian soy prices could shift export demand toward US soybeans and support soybean and meal prices in the short term.
bloomberg.comClarice CoutoJun 7, 2024After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 36 past policy events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.6%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
