US-China Tariffs Put Agriculture Back in the Trade Spotlight

After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Jul 26, 2022Tariffs & Trade War Impact on U.S. Agriculture | Tax Foundation+8.2%
• Oct 29, 2018U.S. agriculture chief says no plan to extend farm aid to offset tariffs+3.6%
• Apr 23, 2025US-China tariffs continue to hold sway over trade | World Grain+0.6%
• Feb 13, 2017Unsettling China, Mexico trade ideas - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets-2.5%
• Oct 1, 2024Trade Policy Shifts and Their Potential Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports-2.2%

After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Apr 23, 2025US-China tariffs continue to hold sway over trade | World Grain-2.3%
• Feb 13, 2017Unsettling China, Mexico trade ideas - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets-1.1%
• Jul 11, 2024Corn Was King: The Transition to Soy in U.S. Production Agriculture - Center for Commercial Agriculture-0.9%
• Oct 1, 2024Trade Policy Shifts and Their Potential Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports+0.2%
• Jul 14, 2020Tight Chinese pork supply to ease by fourth quarter: agriculture official – China Economic Review-1.1%

After 36 past policy events, USDBRL moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.6%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Nov 30, 2024Brazil Central Bank to ban self-custody stablecoins as BRL collapses against the USD+1.3%
• Jun 7, 2024Brazil Soy Prices: Tax Change Seen Making US More Competitive - Bloomberg+2.3%
• Jun 18, 2020Deforestation in Amazon, MEPs call on EU not to be complicit in it | AGENCE EUROPE+0.7%
• Feb 21, 2025Brazil's central bank has no exchange rate target, says director | MarketScreener+2.3%
• Jul 21, 2022Lula Advisers Draft Plans For More Aggressive Brazil FX Policy | IBTimes-2.5%