Trade Policy Shifts and Their Potential Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports

After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.

• May 2, 2017FiBL - Report on the EU Common Agricultural Policy and deforestation-0.3%
• Jul 26, 2022Tariffs & Trade War Impact on U.S. Agriculture | Tax Foundation+8.2%
• Jun 5, 2026Argentina: Argentina Further Cuts Agricultural Export Taxes | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service-0.6%
• May 4, 2017Drawing out links between the Common Agricultural Policy, soy, and deforestation in South America - Fern-0.4%
• Dec 31, 2018Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports - EveryCRSReport.com+3.3%

After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Jul 11, 2024Corn Was King: The Transition to Soy in U.S. Production Agriculture - Center for Commercial Agriculture-0.9%
• Jun 25, 2025NDSU report projects rising export costs for U.S. agriculture under new port fees+2.3%
• Sep 30, 2019Lack of Funding for U.S. Internal Waterways System Threatens to Damage Agricultural Production and Shipping - FreightWaves-0.9%
• Sep 1, 2026US-China Tariffs Put Agriculture Back in the Trade Spotlight+0.2%
• Feb 9, 2022Activists push for Mexico’s GM corn ban to include imports | Agriculture News | Al Jazeera+0.5%