Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports

After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Jun 25, 2025NDSU report projects rising export costs for U.S. agriculture under new port fees-2.1%
• May 2, 2017FiBL - Report on the EU Common Agricultural Policy and deforestation-0.3%
• Oct 29, 2018U.S. agriculture chief says no plan to extend farm aid to offset tariffs+3.6%
• Oct 1, 2024Trade Policy Shifts and Their Potential Implications for U.S. Agricultural Exports-2.2%
• Apr 20, 2023EU Regulation on deforestation-free products: What comes next for importers / exporters of agricultural commodities? | BLOMSTEIN-4.7%

After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.

• May 2, 2017FiBL - Report on the EU Common Agricultural Policy and deforestation-1.5%
• Jun 4, 2018Argentina: Argentina’s Delay of Soybean Export Tax Reduction Unlikely | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service-4.4%
• Dec 28, 2024The financial problems of a major agricultural group bring to the forefront the demand for lower export taxes – Universidad Austral-0.1%
• Feb 2, 2024SCIO press conference on performance of agriculture and rural economy in 2023 | english.scio.gov.cn-3.3%
• Jul 26, 2025Milei announces ‘permanent’ reduction in agricultural export duties - Buenos Aires Herald+0.1%