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Minnesota Soybean Processors CEO Jeramie Weller says a high 2026 RVO of 5.6 billion gallons and clear 45Z guidance could boost renewable diesel demand and soybean oil values. He says soybeans have fallen from $15-16 to about $10 per bushel while the industry waits for policy.
He also says more crush could help replace some China exports.
Expected policy-driven demand from renewable diesel would lift soybean oil and crush margins, supporting soybean prices. The China export gap is a secondary driver of soybean demand.
brownfieldagnews.comCarah HartJan 21, 2026After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
