
University of Illinois economist Scott Irwin says the recently announced RVOs will drive another biofuels boom centered on renewable diesel and biodiesel. He cites the half-credit treatment of imported fuels and feedstocks starting in 2028 and the 45Z credit's North American feedstock requirement.
Irwin estimates full implementation could lift soybean prices 50 to 75 cents per bushel.
A forecast 50 to 75 cent rise in soybean prices from sustained domestic biofuel feedstock demand would strongly support soy and soyoil prices.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.