
The National Biodiesel Board says the EPA has denied some gap-year small refinery exemptions and hopes the remaining 14 pending at the Department of Energy will also be denied. The industry is also waiting on the 2021 and 2022 Renewable Volume Obligations, which the EPA is due to set by November 30.
Denying exemptions keeps biomass-based diesel demand intact, which supports soybean oil. The pending volume rule is a larger swing factor for future biodiesel demand.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.