
An extension economist at the University of Missouri says Congress is weighing changes and an extension to the 45Z clean fuel tax credit. He also says the ag and oil industries have reached agreement on Renewable Fuel Standard volume updates, expected to be announced within 7 to 10 days.
More certainty for biofuel producers would encourage greater use of soybean oil in fuel, which would be supportive for soybean oil and soybean prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.