Petroleum prices fell for a second week, with WTI down 2.8%, Brent down 1.2% and ULSD down 0.9%. OPEC+ kept its 400,000 bpd monthly increase despite Western requests for more supply, and a US Energy Secretary said the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is an option.
OPEC+ holding output steady while SPR release is floated leaves crude supply uncertain, which affects energy costs and biofuel and feed-input pricing.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.