The FEWS NET East Africa Food Security Outlook projects severe food insecurity to persist into 2022 in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Sudan and Kenya. Conflict, multi-season drought and floods are the main drivers, with high malnutrition in conflict areas.
Humanitarian food needs in East Africa add to import demand for grain and feed, but the effect on global feed prices is small because the region's purchases are modest and largely funded by aid.
After 464 past geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 152 past geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 493 past geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.6%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 80 past geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -0.9% to +5.2%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.