Fed finally moves against inflation with rate hike

After 273 past bearish macro events, SOY moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Aug 25, 2022Inflation-hit world cheers China’s falling yuan | Reuters-3.4%
• Jun 16, 2021Dollar jumps after Fed pulls interest rate hikes into 2023 | Reuters-4.9%
• Sep 23, 2021Investors look ahead to rate hikes with Fed tapering plan all but certain+0.1%
• Mar 21, 2018Fed hikes rates and raises GDP forecast again-0.9%
• Oct 14, 2026Dollar hits fresh 18-month high as hot inflation boosts Fed hike expectation-2.3%

After 301 past bearish macro events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jun 16, 2021Dollar jumps after Fed pulls interest rate hikes into 2023 | Reuters-2.3%
• Sep 23, 2021Investors look ahead to rate hikes with Fed tapering plan all but certain+1.3%
• Mar 21, 2018Fed hikes rates and raises GDP forecast again-0.0%
• Oct 14, 2026Dollar hits fresh 18-month high as hot inflation boosts Fed hike expectation-1.8%
• Jun 17, 2021Dollar surges to two-month high on Fed rate-hike projection-2.4%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jan 27, 2022Fed likely to hike rates in March as Powell vows sustained inflation fight | Reuters+0.1%
• Apr 11, 2018Fed minutes: 'All' members see higher GDP and inflation, and more rate hikes-0.3%
• Apr 3, 2025With tariff details in hand, Fed now has to weigh inflation risks against blow to growth | Reuters+0.2%
• Dec 16, 2024Dollar edges higher against major peers as investors eye Fed rate cut | Reuters+0.5%
• Jun 13, 2018Dollar mostly firmer as Fed sees more U.S. rate hikes | Reuters+1.3%