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The dollar index jumped to a near six-week high after Federal Reserve projections showed a majority of officials expecting at least two rate hikes by 2023. Inflation projections rose and economic growth forecasts were lifted.
Expectations of earlier Fed tightening strengthen the dollar, which typically weighs on dollar-priced commodities and can reduce import demand from emerging markets.
reuters.comElizabeth Howcroft, Saqib AhmedJun 16, 2021After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Fed's June 16 projections pulled rate hikes into 2023 and sent the dollar index to a near six-week high, starting the 5-day move.
The Fed's June 16 hawkish dot plot sent the dollar index sharply higher, and the move carried into the June 17 window.
