Investors look ahead to rate hikes with Fed tapering plan all but certain

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Dec 14, 2021Investors brace for faster Fed taper, rate hikes next year+0.1%
• Jan 24, 2024Investors temper US rate cut bets as Fed meeting looms-0.4%
• Nov 2, 2016The Federal Reserve looks ready to roll with an interest rate hike in December-0.6%
• Jan 1, 2026Fed sees only one rate cut in 2026; no hike ahead, says Powell+0.3%
• Sep 16, 2026Canadian dollar hits six-week low as investors bet on additional Fed rate hikes | Reuters+0.6%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Mar 16, 2022Fed finally moves against inflation with rate hike | Reuters+0.1%
• Jul 26, 2023Fed lifts rates, Powell leaves door open to another hike in September-13.9%
• Dec 14, 2016Fed surprises with three rate hikes next year — and could need more-2.5%
• Jun 14, 2017Fed raises key rate and unveils plan to reduce bond holdings | AP News-2.1%
• Jun 16, 2021Dollar jumps after Fed pulls interest rate hikes into 2023 | Reuters-2.3%

After 273 past bearish macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.4%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 16, 2022Fed finally moves against inflation with rate hike | Reuters+2.3%
• Jul 26, 2023Fed lifts rates, Powell leaves door open to another hike in September-4.5%
• Dec 14, 2016Fed surprises with three rate hikes next year — and could need more-2.2%
• Jun 14, 2017Fed raises key rate and unveils plan to reduce bond holdings | AP News-0.5%
• Jun 16, 2021Dollar jumps after Fed pulls interest rate hikes into 2023 | Reuters-4.9%