
Indonesia's WTO challenge to EU palm oil restrictions is discussed, with a WTO ruling expected by year-end. The Ukraine war has reduced sunflower oil supply and raised palm oil demand in Europe.
Reduced sunflower oil supply and pressure to relax EU palm curbs support palm oil demand and prices, which tightens the vegoil complex.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.