
Indonesia and Malaysia will delay trade talks with the European Union while they seek fairer treatment for smallholders under the EU deforestation law. The two countries account for about 85% of global palm oil exports, and the EU is their third-largest market.
Trade friction over the EU deforestation rules could disrupt palm oil and soy-related export flows to Europe, though near-term price impact is likely limited.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.