
Indonesia may ship 17.3 million tonnes of palm oil from July to December, up over 60% from the first half, as it works to cut bloated inventories. Stockpiles exceeded 7 million tonnes in early July, and analyst Dorab Mistry said prices could fall over 20% by September.
A large Indonesian export surge adds heavy supply to global vegetable oils, which is bearish for palm oil and competing oils used in feed and food.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.