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GAPKI said Indonesian palm oil exports to the US could fall 15%-20% if a threatened 32% US tariff on Indonesian goods is implemented. US shipments averaged 2.25 million tonnes per year over the past three years.
A tariff-driven drop in US-bound shipments would redirect Indonesian palm supply to other buyers, adding pressure to global palm prices and to competing soyoil. The threat remains unconfirmed, so the impact is uncertain.
reuters.comReutersAug 1, 2025After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
