India raised its import duty on Indonesian crude palm oil from 7.5-15% to 100% higher, and raised tariffs on CPO derivatives from 15% to 25%. Indonesia's trade minister said Jakarta is pursuing the issue with New Delhi, warning of lower exports to India.
A sharp Indian tariff increase on a major import source is bearish for Indonesian palm oil export demand and supports prices of competing vegetable oils.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.