
Indonesia says it will not accept an EU draft under RED II that would phase out palm oil use in road transport fuel by 2030 over deforestation concerns. It plans to challenge the plan at the WTO, arguing that the EU's sustainability method favours sunflower and rapeseed oil.
The EU phase-out threatens a market taking about 15% of Indonesia's palm exports, and a WTO dispute adds uncertainty. Competing vegetable oils such as rapeseed and sunflower may gain share in EU biofuel.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.