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After 1,802 past trade events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 1,982 past trade events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 129 past trade events, WTI moved a median -2.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -6.1% to +2.1%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 101 past trade events, DXY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.3%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement set off a global risk-off move and raised fears of a US growth slowdown and retaliation, which eroded confidence in US assets and drove the sharp one-day dollar decline (currency/sentiment channel).
The sweeping US reciprocal tariffs announced the evening before triggered a global risk-off selloff and raised fears of slower global growth and weaker oil demand, which plausibly drove WTI's sharp one-day drop. OPEC+'s same-day decision to accelerate output increases likely also contributed, but it is not among the listed candidates.
The April 2 Liberation Day tariffs triggered a global risk-off move and raised the risk of retaliation against US agriculture, pressuring soybeans on April 3.
The sweeping US reciprocal tariffs announced the evening before triggered a global risk-off selloff and raised fears of slower global growth and weaker oil demand, which plausibly drove WTI's sharp one-day drop. OPEC+'s same-day decision to accelerate output increases likely also contributed, but it is not among the listed candidates.
The sweeping US reciprocal tariffs triggered a global risk-off selloff and raised recession fears that cut expected oil demand, which plausibly drove much of WTI's sharp drop in the days that followed (OPEC+ supply news in the same window, not among the candidates, likely also contributed).
The sweeping US reciprocal tariffs triggered a global risk-off selloff and raised recession fears that cut expected oil demand, which plausibly drove much of WTI's sharp drop in the days that followed (OPEC+ supply news in the same window, not among the candidates, likely also contributed).
