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India cut its DAP subsidy by 31%, leaving an estimated USD 100/tonne margin shortfall on imported DAP. The Tampa November ammonia settlement rose USD 50 to USD 625/tonne CFR, and India secured 1.67 million tonnes of urea in a tender closing October 20.
A subsidy cut reduces Indian import demand for DAP and the higher ammonia settlement lifts nitrogen costs, while the large Indian urea purchase supports urea prices.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganOct 30, 2023After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
