
India raised its nutrient-based fertiliser subsidy for the summer crop season by 11.6% year on year, worth 415.34 billion rupees. The government will keep DAP at 1,350 rupees per 50-kg bag despite higher global prices following the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The subsidy shields Indian demand from global price spikes, so import buying for DAP may stay firm, supporting international phosphate prices.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.