The Russian government extended export quotas on mineral fertilisers for June 1 to November 30, 2023, with a total volume above 16.3 million tonnes. The quotas cover urea, ammonium nitrate, complex NPK and monoammonium phosphate, and were raised by almost 2 million tonnes to let producers export unclaimed product.
Export quotas cap Russian shipments of key nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers during the northern hemisphere summer, which supports global urea and DAP prices even though the volume is larger than the prior period.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.