
Russia's Cabinet set export duties on fertilizers of 7% with minimum floors per tonne: 1,100 rubles for nitrogen, 2,100 for phosphate and 1,800 for potash. The duties apply from September 1, 2023 through December 31, 2024, according to a draft decree.
Russia is a major fertilizer exporter, so an export levy tightens offshore supply and supports fertilizer prices, which raises feed input costs for buyers.
After 129 past bullish policy events, UREA moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.