
The EU is raising import duties on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus from July 1, 2025, and the rate will climb to 100% of value by 2028. The measure is aimed at reducing EU dependence on these suppliers.
Poland, France and Germany are the largest EU buyers of Russian fertilizer.
Higher duties on Russian nitrogen will cut supply of cheaper product into Europe, which should lift European urea prices and raise production costs for livestock and crop producers.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.