Russia's government issued an order setting temporary quantitative export restrictions on certain mineral fertilizers for non-EAEU countries, with quotas for June 1 to November 30, 2024. The quotas cover nitrogen-based codes (3102) and compound fertilizer codes (3105), and the order was later amended in October 2024 to add volume.
Russia is a major fertilizer exporter, so capped export volumes tighten global nitrogen and phosphate supply during the northern hemisphere application season. This is likely supportive for urea and DAP prices.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.