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IISD policy analyst Facundo Calvo argues WTO members should avoid export restrictions on fertilizers to protect food security. He notes fertilizers feed 30-50% of the global population and that farmers faced record input prices due to high energy and transport costs.
Supply is concentrated, making it vulnerable to shocks.
Export restrictions on fertilizer would tighten global nutrient supply and lift urea, ammonia and potash prices, raising feed grain production costs for buyers. Calls for open trade point to supply easing, but restriction risk remains a bullish cost factor.
iisd.orgFacundo CalvoApr 14, 2023After 129 past bullish policy events, UREA moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
