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The World Bank reports that most fertilizer prices rose sharply in 2021Q3 and kept climbing into November, reaching levels not seen since 2008-09. Surging European gas prices cut ammonia output, Chinese coal rationing hit fertilizer plants, and China suspended fertilizer exports until June 2022.
China's export suspension removes a large share of global DAP and urea supply, which pushes fertilizer prices higher. Higher fertilizer costs raise farm input costs and feed price pressure over time.
blogs.worldbank.orgJohn Baffes, Wee Chian KohNov 15, 2021After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
