China has suspended fertilizer exports until June 2022 to protect domestic supply amid food security concerns. The article notes that China accounts for roughly one-third of global DAP trade and one-tenth of urea trade.
A large export halt from a top phosphate and urea supplier tightens global availability and supports higher DAP and urea prices, raising input costs for feed grain producers.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.