
AgWeb reports that China effectively banned phosphate exports through June 2022, according to StoneX's Josh Linville. Fertilizer prices are approaching 2008 highs after Hurricane Ida, European and Chinese production slowdowns, and other supply shocks.
Linville notes NOLA urea has not yet reached its 2008 peak of about $825 per tonne.
China supplies about one-third of world phosphate trade, so a ban through mid-2022 sharply tightens global DAP and related supply. This raises the cost of crop nutrients ahead of the 2022 planting season and could limit US corn acreage.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.