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An IFPRI modeling analysis finds that fertilizer export restrictions by producers outside the Persian Gulf could significantly worsen global price swings after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The authors note that export bans insulate domestic markets but remove volume from world supply, while subsidies sustain consumption but add to price pressure.
Export restrictions and subsidy policies by major fertilizer exporters can magnify supply shocks, keeping urea and DAP prices high and raising feed production costs.
ifpri.orgShawn Arita, Ming Wang, Joseph GlauberMay 22, 2026After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
