
China's export ban on phosphate fertilizer and some nitrogen fertilizers runs through June 2022. China accounted for 25 percent of global processed phosphate exports and about 10 percent of urea exports in 2020.
The ban removes a major share of global phosphate and urea supply, keeping upward pressure on fertilizer prices that feed into crop and feed costs.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.