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Farm Futures outlook says Chinese export controls, reduced Brazilian fertilizer applications and Red Sea shipping disruption will keep 2024 fertilizer prices volatile. Brazilian farmers are slowing purchases as drought cuts safrinha corn prospects.
Red Sea attacks have not yet stopped fertilizer shipments, but urea faces the highest risk of price increases.
Constrained Chinese exports and softer Brazilian demand weigh on early-year prices, while shipping risk gives urea an upside bias that buyers should consider when timing purchases.
farmprogress.comJacqueline HollandDec 22, 2023After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
